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Human Swine Flu A(H1N1) - Projected Growth

 
 
 

The Projected Growth of Swine Flu

As there is not enough information yet it is difficult to accurately predict the spread of the virus. Current information would suggest a daily factor of between 1.2 and 1.7. Based upon a population with 50 million hosts starting from a single/small cluster of cases the behavior would be expected to be as in the table below. Please note this is the number of people exposed to the virus - though some will have immunity so show no symptoms.

Day
Factor 1.2
Factor 1.5
Factor 1.7
1 1 1 1
2 1 2 2
3 1 2 3
4 2 3 5
5 2 5 8
6 2 8 14
7 3 11 24
8 4 17 41
9 4 26 70
10 5 38 119
11 6 58 202
12 7 86 343
13 9 130 583
14 11 195 990
15 13 292 1,684
16 15 438 2,862
17 18 657 4,866
18 22 985 8,272
19 27 1,478 14,063
20 32 2,217 23,907
21 38 3,325 40,642
22 46 4,988 69,092
23 55 7,482 117,456
24 66 11,223 199,676
25 79 16,834 339,449
26 95 25,251 577,063
27 114 37,877 981,007
28 137 56,815 1,667,711
29 165 85,223 2,835,109
30 198 127,834 4,819,686
31 237 191,751 8,193,466
32 285 287,627 13,928,892
33 342 431,440 23,679,116
34 410 647,160 40,254,497
35 492 970,740 50,000,000
36 591 1,456,110 50,000,000
37 709 2,184,164 50,000,000
38 851 3,276,247 50,000,000
39 1,021 4,914,370 50,000,000
40 1,225 7,371,555 50,000,000
41 1,470 11,057,332 50,000,000
42 1,764 16,585,998 50,000,000
43 2,116 24,878,998 50,000,000
44 2,540 37,318,497 50,000,000
45 3,048 50,000,000 50,000,000
46 3,657 50,000,000 50,000,000

 

     

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